The Macron Risk Factor
The 2017 French election is the most suspenseful in the fifth republic. Four candidates have credible chances to make it to the second round of voting. None of these Candidates, except Marine Le Pen were forecast to be finalist in presidential race. While polls show a runoff between Macron and Le Pen, where Macron would win thanks to the support of the all-but-Le-Pen coalition there are serious risks that Macron may not qualify for the second round of the presidential election (like Lionel Jospin in 1997). That risk would be disastrous for France because it will leave the country with two seriously flawed candidates, the leftist Melenchon or the populist Le Pen, none of which have a credible economic agenda for a country whose economic performance has been lackluster.
A low participation rate — as analysed by the Financial Times — would favor Le Pen.
Moreover, Macron has an exceptional risk of not making it to the second round because he is expected to make it to the second stage of voting while he is the second choice of most people who prefer another candidate. Let’s outline our analysis. Macron is expected to be leading the first round of voting. Given his unconventional background, he is not the favorite candidate of most voters in the first round, but he is the second favorite candidate of most voters. That creates a situation whereby he is at risk of not making it to the second round as people overestimate his risk of making it to the second round (due to his position as first round poll leaders) and hence not being able to win the presidency even though he is favored by most people whose first choice does not make it to the second round (making him the unconditional favorite of the second round).
Lets expand our analysis
For Fillon sympathizers they want to see their candidate — battling fraud allegations — make it to the second round, so they will vote for him. In a runoff, they prefer Macron than an economic hard liner Melenchon. Thus Macron is the second choice for people who are committed to vote for Fillon. These people will most likely vote for Fillon who is projected in third place. Fillon sympathiser also prefer Macron to Le Pen because he is an economic moderate and not a populist. For Fillon sympathizers the strategic choice is: Vote for Fillon in the First Round, and Macron in the Second Round.
For socialist voters, Melenchon is particularly attractive in the first round of voting. A strong Melenchon vote in the first round would send a strong signal for their preference for socialist economic policies and would reduce the margin for a right wing president to implement liberal market reforms. Given that Melenchon is in third or fourth place, these people are committed to vote for him to signal their support of socialist policies. The left distrust Macron who is running against a socialist candidate — Benoit Hammond — despite Macron’s credentials as a Economy Minister under the Socialist President Hollande. That being said, in a runoff against Le Pen, socialist prefer Macron’s socially progressive positions than Le Pen’s violent anti-immigrant rhetoric. For Melenchon sympathizers, the strategic choice is: Vote for Melenchon in the First Round, and Macron in the Second Round.
For Le Pen, she has a favorable tailwind in the first round of voting which increases her likelihood of making it to the second round. She is currently in second position of most polls taken right before the election. She may be underrepresented due to social desirability biases where many people would not admit voting for her (reminiscent of the soft polling results of candidate Trump). This skews favorably her chances of making it to the second round. Further, many people who echo her hardline anti-immigrant rhetoric but who do not believe her to be a credible candidate, may vote for her as a signal of their support for a more hard line anti-immigrant policy. Le Pen’s supporters are those that are least likely of all the other major candidates to prefer Macron to their candidate in the second round. For Le Pen voters: vote Le Pen on both rounds. For an unknown quantity of non traditional Le Pen sympathisers: vote Le Pen on the first round, and the alternative in the second round as a signal.
If people overestimate Macron’s chances of making it to the second round where he is their second option (should their candidate fail), and vote for their preferred candidate instead, Macron may fail to make it to the second round. This risk is amplified by the Macron’s status as an unconventional candidate. He would be the first president to be elected without the backing of a historical party. He would be the youngest French president to be elected. He would win by defending an economically unpopular position: economic liberalism (opposed to Le Pen’s economic populism and Mélenchon’s protectionism).
In that case, a Fillon or a Melenchon may create a surprise by facing off Le Pen who is underrepresented in the polls. In a runoff against Le Pen, Fillon would win based on his experience as a former prime minister. In a runoff against Le Pen, Melenchon is vulnerable because his sympathisers share Marine Le Pen’s anti-european position but not necessarily her hard line rhetoric.
In summary, the expectation that Macron will make it to the second round may undermine his chances of becoming president. That being said, he is the least flawed candidate of the bunch. Le Pen’s rhetoric is not realistic and needlessly pessimistic. Mélenchon’s economic inclinations are not viable in a globalized world where investors buy French bonds in exchange for access to its goods and services market. Fillon’s social positions are old fashioned and the recent fraud allegations against him undermine his credibility.
Zacharie Liman-Tinguiri
